This text was pulled from the PDF automatically and may contain mistakes. The PDF is the official record, so check it before relying on this.
3 pages have little or no readable text here, often scans or drawings. See the PDF for those.
Page 1
POLICE PENSION BOARD AGENDA
AUGUST 15, 2012 - 3:30 P.M.
CITY HALL COUNCIL CHAMBERS
15 LOOCKERMAN PLAZA
DOVER, DELAWARE
Public comments are welcomed on any item and will be permitted at appropriate times.
When possible, please notify the City Clerk (736-7008 or e-mail at CityClerk@dover.de.us)
should you wish to be recognized.
AGENDA ADDITIONS/DELETIONS
1. Adoption of Minutes - Police Pension Board Meeting of May 9, 2012
2. Organizational Issues - Election of Chair
3. Quarterly Performance Review (Quarter Ending June 30, 2012) (Milliman, Inc.)
4. Discussion - Liability to Asset Allocation Study (Milliman, Inc.)
5. Scheduling of Future Meeting Dates
6. Adjournment by 4:00 P.M.
TO ASSURE THAT THERE WILL BE A QUORUM,
PLEASE RSVP BY CONTACTING THE CITY CLERK’S OFFICE
BY EMAIL AT CITYCLERK@DOVER.DE.US OR BY CALLING 736-7008
AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
/js
S:\AGENDAS-MINUTES-PACKETS\Misc-Agendas\PENSION BOARDS\2012\POLICE PENSION BOARD\08-15-2012 POLICE PENSION BOARD AGENDA.wpd
THE AGENDA ITEMS AS LISTED MAY NOT BE CONSIDERED IN SEQUENCE. THIS AGENDA IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE TO INCLUDE
THE ADDITION OR THE DELETION OF ITEMS, INCLUDING EXECUTIVE SESSIONS.
Page 2
POLICE PENSION BOARD
A meeting of the Police Pension Board was held on May 9, 2012 at 4:09 p.m. with Dr. McGlumphy,
presiding in the absence of Chairman Mullaney. Members present were Mr. Bonar, Mr. Koenig,
Ret. Lt. Knotts, and Ret. Cpl Stallings. Chief Hosfelt was absent.
AGENDA ADDITIONS/DELETIONS
Mr. Bonar moved for approval of the agenda as presented, seconded by Mr. Knotts and
unanimously carried.
Quarterly Return Summary and Quarterly Investment Monitor Report (Milliman, Inc.)
Mr. Jeff Marzinsky, Principal and Employee Benefits Consultant, Milliman, Inc., stated that it was
his honor to be retained by the City of Dover to serve in an investment advisory capacity. He stated
his intention to review the initial report for the Police Pension Plan and some of the projects planned
for the next few months, looking at the asset allocation, the investments in the portfolio, and the
duration of the liabilities, so that the actuarial results and the funded status of the plan could be tied
together. He stated that Milliman would be reviewing funded status to determine whether the
portfolio should be more of a growth-type versus a liability-driven portfolio.
Mr. Marzinsky provided members a revised Quarterly Investment Monitor - Summary Report for
the Quarter Ending March 31, 2012 Prepared for City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan
(Attachment #1), which included a Quarterly Return Summary, and presented an overview of the
report. He explained that Section A contained the Market Commentary, which summarized the
status of the world economy. He indicated that for the majority of the quarter, most of the three (3)
month and one (1) year returns were positive, with a slight lag in smaller cap equity categories and
noted that favorable economic signs were being seen.
Referring to the Quarterly Return Summary in the Performance Summary section of the Report,
Mr. Marzinsky noted that some of the calculations of the City’s prior advisor had been replicated to
show month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter performance. He noted a 7.01% net return and 7.08%
gross return for the quarter.
Mr. Marzinsky stated that Asset Allocation was reflected on Page 9 of the report and that Milliman
may recommend some future changes in this regard. He indicated that the current allocation of the
plan was approximately 66% equity and 34% fixed income, which he stated was a fairly aggressive
portfolio. He noted that international investments accounted for approximately 18% of equity
investments and that the portfolio was fairly growth oriented.
Mr. Marzinsky explained that Page 10, Investment Policy Review - Active Management, focused
on the investment parameters of the report. He noted that Columns 1 and 2, Return Rank, reflected
how each fund compared to the same type of funds in that asset category. Columns 3 and 4 reflected
Excess Return, showing how the fund’s performance over the time period compared to its market
benchmark. He indicated that highlighting reflects that a fund is performing worse than it should
be. Mr. Marzinsky advised members that Columns 5 and 6 related to Standard Deviation, which is
Page 3
POLICE PENSION BOARD MEETING OF MAY 9, 2012 PAGE 2
a measure of the volatility of returns. He explained that the columns labeled Alpha and Sharpe are
measures that show how well the fund manager does with their investment style within the fund.
He noted that Alpha indicated the value being added and Sharpe was a measure of the reward per
unit of risk being taken.
As an illustration, Mr. Marzinsky reviewed statistics regarding the Vanguard Prime Cap Investor
Shares Fund. He pointed out that, on Page 10, this fund had a Return Rank of 79 (highlighted). He
explained that funds are ranked within their peer group from 0 (best) to 99 (lowest); therefore, at 79,
this fund ranked below the halfway mark; however, over five (5) years it ranked better than half of
the funds in its peer group. Mr. Marzinsky stated that Excess Return compared the fund to a large-
cap benchmark and noted that for the three (3) year period the fund was trailing its benchmark by
-3.51% and over five (5) years by -0.45%. In reference to standard deviation, Mr. Marzinsky
explained that figures greater than 1.0 reflect that a fund was a little more aggressive than its
benchmark; therefore this fund was slightly more volatile than the market. With this amount of
volatility, he felt that figures for excess return should have been better. He reminded members that
Alpha and Sharpe were peer group comparisons and that the rank of 72, in over three (3) and five (5)
years, under Alpha reflected the fund’s ability to generate value compared to the peer group. He
stated that the figures indicated that this fund was underperforming its peers.
Mr. Marzinsky explained that Page 11, Investment Policy Review - Passive Management, reflected
similar measures for passive funds by providing Beta and Tracking Error information. He explained
that if a fund had a beta of 1.0 it was following the index exactly and the majority of index funds
have a beta that is close to 1.0. He stated that Milliman had used a three (3) year benchmark in their
report and would be adjusting this to a five (5) year benchmark and that the beta would then be close
to 1.0 and tracking error would be very low.
Mr. Marzinsky advised members that the Investment Policy Review, contained on Pages 10-11,
functions as a “scorecard” which ties back to the parameters set in the investment policy for fund
managers that are included in the plan. He indicated that the high-level review conducted showed
underperformance in some funds but nothing major at this time and that a more thorough review of
asset allocation and managers would be performed.
Referring to Page 14, U.S. Equity Style Map, Mr. Marzinsky noted that the grid assessed how a
manager was doing in accordance with a style-specific index, taking actual performance over time
periods and comparing it to the performance style of the index to see if it is well correlated. He
noted that this would reflect if a manager was adhering to his/her style. For example, the actions of
a large cap value manager should appear in the upper left quadrant, and a small cap growth manager
should be in the lower right quadrant. He explained that a fund that moves “all over the place”
would illustrate that a manager was not adhering to his/her style, which could cause overlapping
styles in the plan and duplication of efforts. Mr. Marzinsky noted that the lower right quadrant of
the grid indicated that there were no small growth or mid-cap investments in the portfolio and that
these may be asset categories that would enhance the trust fund.
Mr. Marzinsky stated that Page 16 of the report began the Core Fund Review, which provided details
regarding individual investments in the plan. He noted that during the Civilian Pension Board
Page 4
POLICE PENSION BOARD MEETING OF MAY 9, 2012 PAGE 3
Meeting held prior to this meeting, he was requested to create an executive summary based on the
information in the report and offered to do the same for the Police Pension Board.
Mr. Bonar advised members that during the Civilian Pension Board Meeting, Mr. Marzinsky was
asked to provide an executive summary in advance of the meeting so that it could be read and, in the
long run, a representative from Milliman may not need to attend meetings more than twice per year.
He noted that this decision would be up to members.
Dr. McGlumphy felt that it would be a good idea to have the executive summary well in advance of
meetings.
Mr. Marzinsky noted that Page 25 of the report contained statistics regarding the Vanguard Primcap
Investors’ Fund, including a breakdown of the overall asset allocation of the fund, portfolio region,
portfolio structure, sector allocation, and credit quality. He explained that the middle column
contained information about the fund manager, the average market cap of the investments, and the
overall Morningstar rating (four (4) out of five (5) possible stars). Mr. Marzinsky noted that the
expense ratio indicated that this particular fund was well below its peers, which he stated was a very
good thing in a pension portfolio. He indicated that there was a paragraph about the fund and
information regarding its performance over the last three (3) months, year to date, one (1) year, three
(3) years, and five (5) years. He noted that in the Performance vs. Peer Group chart, the floating bar
chart demonstrated the range of returns of the other investments in the fund’s asset class and that this
particular fund was underperforming other funds in year to date, one (1) year, and three (3) year
timeframes, but the five (5) year return showed fairly good performance.
Mr. Marzinsky concluded his report by reviewing Page 26 of the report, which provided information
regarding the fund year-by-year, as well as a numerical comparison performance index on a
year-to-year basis compared to the Standard & Poor Index and risk-adjusted measures, rolling period
returns, Up/Down Market Capture Ratio, and Return vs. Risk.
Mr. Marzinsky noted that he works very closely with Mr. Scott Porter, Milliman, Inc., who works
on the actuarial side, and stated that he would return in a few months with recomomendations
regarding the asset allocation of the plan and whether changes should be made to asset categories
and managers within categories. He noted that in the future his report would consist of more
summarized information but wanted to provide members with information regarding fund analysis.
Mrs. Mitchell advised members that Milliman, Inc., was also serving as the City’s actuary and would
be matching assets with the structure of the portfolio. She stated that the members of the Police
Pension Plan are all retired and the plan is closed; therefore, the plan would likely end up with a
different structure than the Civilian Pension Plan. For this reason, she anticipated that meetings
would be held separately in the future because there would be different choices to be made. She
noted that in the future, the Other Post-Employment Benefits Board, Civilian Pension Board, and
Police Pension Board would likely meet on the same day with brief meetings scheduled back-to-
back.
Page 5
POLICE PENSION BOARD MEETING OF MAY 9, 2012 PAGE 4
Mr. Marzinsky noted that, in the future, rather than reviewing all of the information, Milliman would
provide a one (1) to two (2) page memo with bullet points to highlight issues or recommendations
for change or “watch.”
Ret. Lt. Knotts moved for adjournment, seconded by Ret. Cpl. Stallings and unanimously
carried.
Meeting adjourned at 4:29 P.M.
William P. McGlumphy
Acting Chairman
WPM/JS/dd/tm
S:\AGENDAS-MINUTES-PACKETS\Misc-Minutes\PENSION\2012\05-09-2012 Police Pension.wpd
Attachment to Original
Attachment #1 - Revised Quarterly Investment Monitor - Summary Report for the Quarter Ending March 31, 2012 -
Prepared for City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan, Including Quarterly Return Summary
Page 6
250 Washington Ave Ext
Albany, NY 12203
USA
Tel +1 518 514 7157
MEMO Fax +1 518 514 7200
milliman.com
August 2, 2012
To: City of Dover, DE – Police Pension Board
From: Jeff Marzinsky/Milliman
Re: Meeting Notes – 8/15/2012
Enclosures: Milliman Quarterly Investment Monitor Report and Asset Liability Study
1. Investment Performance Review as of June 30, 2012 – See Quarterly Investment Monitor Report
a. Plan assets have changed from $11.00 million at the beginning of the period to $10.69 million at
the end of the period. After contributions of approximately $325k and withdrawals of $374k, the
plan had a net gain/loss of (5.70%).
b. Some of the actively managed investments are trailing their benchmarks over three and five
year time periods, as well as ranking below median in their respective peer groups.
c. The passive-index investments are following their respective benchmarks.
d. No changes to funds at this time. Milliman will be completing an asset allocation review and
changes to asset classes and fund may be forthcoming.
2. Asset Liability Study – See Asset Liability Study
a. Background:
i. Plan has closed to new participants for over 20 years and is significantly underfunded.
ii. Plan is following a 13-year amortization schedule to meet a projected fully funded
status.
iii. Target actuarial interest rate is set at 7.00%.
b. Milliman has conducted an asset liability study to determine the duration of plan cash flows in
comparison to the duration of plan assets.
i. The study determined approximate cash flow duration on plan liabilities of
approximately 13 years, while current plan assets have a fixed income duration of
approximately 3.95 years and an overall plan asset duration of 1.26 years.
ii. By adding longer duration bond investments, the plan could increase the duration of
fixed income assets (and the overall plan).
c. The expected return on plan assets, based on the current allocation is approximately 6.70%,
with a standard deviation of 12.19. The allocation is approximately 64% equity and 36% fixed
income.
i. It could be possible to produce an expected return more in line with the actuarial target
return of 7.00%, provide more diversification, provide a slightly better match of plan
liabilities to assets and lower expected standard deviation (~12.13) by adding additional
asset classes to the plan. The allocation would be approximately 61% equity and 39%
fixed income.
d. It should also be noted that a dynamic investment policy should be considered, whereby the
plan reduces equity exposure as funded status improves.
Offices in Principal Cities Worldwide
Page 7
Meeting Notes
Page 2
The analysis in this report was prepared utilizing data from third parties and other sources including but not limited to internal
computer software and databases, including among others mpiStylus Pro©,, software designed by Markov Processes
International. Reasonable care has been taken to assure the accuracy of the data contained herein, and comments are objectively
stated and are based on facts gathered in good faith. These reports do not constitute investment advice with respect to the sale or
disposition of individual securities. Milliman disclaims responsibility, financial or otherwise, for the accuracy or completeness of
this report.
This Milliman work product was prepared solely for the internal business use of our clients. Milliman's work may not be provided to
third parties without Milliman's prior written consent. Milliman does not intend to benefit any third party recipient of its work
product, even if Milliman consents to the release of its work product to such third party.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Unless explicitly stated in your Service Agreement, there should be no reliance on Milliman services to provide analysis or
reporting on a daily basis, the changes to manager rankings, ratings or opinions thereon.
Unless explicitly stated in your Service Agreement, Milliman services are not intended to monitor investment manager compliance
with individual security selection criteria, limits on security selection, and/or prohibitions to the holding of certain securities or
security types.
Milliman provides a copy of its SEC Form ADV Part II to clients without charge upon request.
Offices in Principal Cities Worldwide
Page 8
Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012
Qtr 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
S&P 500 Index -2.75 5.45 16.40 0.22 5.33
DJ US Total Stock Mkt Idx (Full-Cap) -3.21 3.78 16.84 0.63 6.16
Russell 1000 Index -3.12 4.37 16.64 0.39 5.72
“Look at market Russell 1000 Value Index
Russell 1000 Growth Index
-2.20
-4.02
3.01
5.76
15.80
17.50
-2.19
2.87
5.28
6.03
fluctuations as Russell 2000 Index
Russell 2000 Value Index
-3.47
-3.01
-2.08
-1.44
17.80
17.43
0.54
-1.05
7.00
6.50
your friend rather
Russell 2000 Growth Index -3.94 -2.71 18.09 1.99 7.39
MSCI EAFE ND -7.13 -13.83 5.96 -6.10 5.14
MSCI EAFE Small Cap ND -8.65 -15.06 9.17 -5.32 8.49
than your enemy; MSCI Europe ND
MSCI Japan ND
-7.47
-7.30
-16.48
-7.23
6.29
1.85
-6.97
-6.51
5.09
2.50
profit from folly MSCI EM ND
DJ World Real Estate
-8.90
1.89
-15.95
0.76
9.77
17.36
-0.09
-3.58
14.08
9.13
rather than DJ US Select REIT Index
ML 3-month T-Bill
3.75
0.03
13.29
0.06
33.52
0.12
1.97
0.98
10.27
1.87
participate in it.”
BC US Gov 1-3Y Bonds 0.20 0.86 1.69 3.40 3.14
BC US Gov/Corp Bonds 2.56 8.78 7.34 6.90 5.79
BC US Aggregate Bond 2.06 7.47 6.93 6.79 5.63
BC US Gov Long Bonds 10.32 31.42 13.51 11.92 8.92
--Warren Buffett BC US Corp Long Bonds 5.12 18.74 15.10 9.85 8.45
BC US High Yield Bonds 1.83 7.27 16.28 8.45 10.16
BC TIPS 3.15 11.66 9.63 8.44 7.23
Page 1
Page 9
Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012
Broad Markets - Five Years
Jun-07 - Jun-12
140
130
120
110
Growth of $100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Jun-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-12
S&P 500 Index DJ US Total Stock Mkt Idx (Full-Cap) MSCI EAFE ND
BC US Aggregate Bond
Market Commentary
The U.S. stock market declined on worries about the European debt crisis, weaker economic data in the U.S. and China, and concerns about the
oncoming “fiscal cliff” in the U.S.
The international equity markets fell in response to slowing global economic growth and fear that the European debt crisis could cause the Euro
zone to break up.
The Federal Reserve Bank continued to sell shorter-term U.S. Treasuries and buy longer-term bonds, with the goal of pushing down long-term
interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending.
As the quarter ended, mutual fund investors increased their holdings in bonds and decreased their holdings in stocks. For the quarter, bond funds
had net inflows of $58.8 billion, while stock funds had net outflows of $19.2 billion. Total money market mutual fund assets decreased by $66.90
billion to $2.538 trillion.
The unemployment rate remained at 8.2%, as total employment increased by 225,000 jobs.
The price of oil decreased from $106 per barrel to $82 during the quarter, a decrease of 22.6%.
For the three months ending June 30, 2012, annualized seasonally adjusted CPI – U was -0.8%. Falling prices for fuel oil and gasoline drove the
decrease.
Page 2
Page 10
Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012
US Fixed Income - Five Years
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Jun-07 - Jun-12
5.00% 180
Las t Year
4.50%
Las t Quarter 160
4.00% This Quarter
3.50% 140
3.00%
120
2.50%
2.00% 100
1.50%
80
1.00%
0.50% 60
Jun-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-12
0.00% ML 3-month T-Bill BC US Gov 1-3Y Bonds
1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr BC US Gov/Corp Bonds BC US Aggregate Bond
Term to Maturity BC US Gov Long Bonds BC US Corp Long Bonds
Source: Department of US Treasury
BC US High Yield Bonds BC TIPS
US Bond Market
Most fixed income markets rose in the 2nd quarter, as investors shifted from lower quality bonds to higher quality bonds.
The short end of the yield curve remained unchanged as the Fed maintained its near-zero interest rate policy.
Interest rates moved decidedly lower in the 10- and 30-year Treasury rates.
Long-term government bonds were the best performing sector this quarter, up 10.32%, as investors sought the safety of government bonds.
Long-term corporate bonds also performed well this quarter, up 5.12%, as long-term corporate rates fell sharply.
Mortgage-backed securities were the worst performing sector this quarter, up 1.08%, as heavy refinancing activity dampened mortgage returns.
91-Day T-Bill returned 0.03% in the second quarter as compared with 0.01% in the first quarter.
Page 3
Page 11
Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012
Russell Indices - Three Years Russell Indices - Five Years
Jun-09 - Jun-12 Jun-07 - Jun-12
200 150
125
175
100
150
75
125 50
100 25
Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jun-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-12
Russell 1000 Index Russell 1000 Value Index Russell 1000 Growth Index Russell 1000 Index Russell 1000 Value Index Russell 1000 Growth Index
Russell 2000 Index Russell 2000 Value Index Russell 2000 Growth Index Russell 2000 Index Russell 2000 Value Index Russell 2000 Growth Index
Russell 1000 Index Sector Weights Russell 1000 Index Sector Quarterly Returns
0.08% -7.60%
Utilities Utilities
7.35% 6.20%
Growth Weight
0.96% Telecomm. 6.50%
Telecomm. 4.76% 14.22%
Value Weight
-3.97%
5.11% Materials
Materials -7.22% Growth Return
2.67%
-6.84% Value Retu rn
30.02% Info. Tech.
Info. Tech. -8.04%
8.53%
12.30% -6.42%
Industrials
Industrials -0.50%
9.29%
1.60%
10.69% Health Care
Health Care 1.89%
12.49%
4.33% -0.73%
Financials
Financials -6.64%
26.21%
9.27% -6.62%
Energy
Energy -6.80%
11.63%
3.98%
Consumer 12.46% Consumer Staples
Staples -0.25%
7.84%
-5.08%
Consumer 14.78% Consumer Discretionary
Discretionary -1.16%
9.24%
-10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00%
0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20. 00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
Source: R ussell/M ellon Analytical Services
US Stock Market
Most major domestic equity indices posted a loss for the quarter. The large-cap Russell 1000 Value Index had the best return, down 2.2%.
Large-cap stocks outperformed small-caps, down 3.1% vs. -3.5%.
In comparing styles, value stocks did better than growth stocks.
REITs had a strong quarter, up 3.75%, due to solid fundamentals, including growing cash flow and improving occupancy and rental rates. The best
performing sectors were infrastructure and health care.
Telecommunication services were the best performing sector, up 13.07%, on better-than-expected earnings from AT&T and Verizon.
Info technology was the worst performing sector, down 7.11%, as corporate IT spending slowed significantly.
Page 4
Page 12
Market Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012
International - Five Years
Currency Exchange Rates
in mixed currency, Jun-07 - Jun-12
Units per US Dollar 150
This Quarter Last Quarter % Change
125
Brazil Reais 2.01 1.83 10.00%
China Yuan Renminbi 6.36 6.30 0.88% 100
Euro 0.79 0.75 5.22%
India Rupees 55.57 50.87 9.24% 75
Japan Yen 79.81 82.87 -3.69%
50
Mexico Pesos 13.41 12.81 4.71%
Russia Rubles 32.42 29.32 10.56% 25
Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
United Kingdom Pounds 0.64 0.62 2.84%
MSCI EAFE ND MSCI EAFE LOC MSCI Europe ND MSCI Japan ND MSCI EM ND
Source: www.xe.com
Regional Performance - Quarter
Apr-12 - Jun-12
-4.09
-8.84
-6.89
-6.50
-5.32
-18.31
-14.80
-9.90
-6.95
-20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Total Annualized Return, %
S&P United Kingdom BMI S&P Europe Ex-U.K. BMI S&P Japan BMI S&P Asia Pacific Ex-Japan BMI
S&P Mid-East and Africa BMI S&P Brazil BMI S&P Russian Federation BMI S&P India BMI
S&P China BMI
International Markets
The dollar was up against the euro and pound, but down against the yen.
For the quarter, the EAFE Index was down 7.13% and Emerging Markets were down 8.90%. Local currency returns for the EAFE Index and
Emerging Markets were -5.43% and -5.26%, respectively.
Among the major international regions, Brazilian stocks had the lowest return (-18.31%) on concerns about the country's future economic growth.
Stocks in Russia also fell substantially (-14.80%), as a result of lower oil prices and a reduction in gas exports to Europe.
Small-cap stocks, down 8.7%, underperformed large-cap stocks.
Page 5
Page 13
City of Dover
Police Pension Plan
Quarterly Return Summary
POLICE-NET POLICE GROSS-
Month End BMV Contribution Withdrawls Fees Gain EMV RETURN RETURN
4/30/2012 $ 11,004,757.07 $ 14,000.00 $ 124,966.29 $ 461.66 $ (144,214.42) $ 10,865,903.79 -1.31% -1.31%
5/31/2012 $ 10,865,903.79 $ - $ 124,966.29 $ 458.10 $ (633,036.63) $ 10,228,335.14 -5.83% -5.83%
6/30/2012 $ 10,228,335.14 $ 311,966.87 $ 124,996.26 $ 439.89 $ 149,512.40 $ 10,685,354.61 1.46% 1.46%
$ 325,966.87 $ 374,928.84 $ 1,359.65 $ (627,738.65) Quarterly Return -5.70% -5.70%
Monthly Returns are calculated with a mid month weighting on cash flows.
Milliman, Inc.
Page 14
Quarterly Investment Monitor Data as of 06/30/2012
Performance Summary
City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan 8
Page 15
Quarterly Investment Monitor Data as of 06/30/2012
Asset Allocation
Balances As of Percent As of Balances As of Percent As of
Notes
06/30/2012 06/30/2012 03/31/2012 03/31/2012
Wells Fargo Advantage Treas Plus MMkt I $598,954 5.61% $274,342 2.49%
Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Signal $2,272,230 21.26% $2,341,365 21.28%
Vanguard Interm-Term Bond Index Signal $1,186,963 11.11% $1,179,688 10.72%
Vanguard Equity-Income Adm $1,477,296 13.83% $1,544,250 14.04%
Vanguard Morgan Growth Adm $724,833 6.78% $802,566 7.30%
Vanguard PRIMECAP Inv $566,323 5.30% $615,641 5.60%
Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Admiral $888,874 8.32% $964,678 8.77%
DFA US Targeted Value I $499,674 4.68% $547,870 4.98%
DFA International Value I $603,121 5.64% $693,700 6.31%
American Funds New Perspective R6 $939,439 8.79% $1,016,145 9.24%
Harding Loevner Global Equity Inst $927,644 8.68% $1,021,040 9.28%
Plan Total $10,685,352 $11,001,284
City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan 9
Page 16
Quarterly Investment Monitor Data as of 06/30/2012
Investment Policy Review - Active Management
Return Return Excess Excess Relative Relative Alpha Sharpe Alpha Sharpe
Fund
Rank Rank Return Return StdDev StdDev Rank Rank Rank Rank
Name
3Y 5Y 3Y 5Y 3Y 5Y 3Y 3Y 5Y 5Y
Vanguard Equity-Income Adm 3 6 3.29 4.45 0.81 0.84 4 4 5 6
Vanguard Morgan Growth Adm 28 53 -1.08 -2.10 1.18 1.14 44 37 55 53
Vanguard PRIMECAP Inv 67 37 -3.74 -1.13 1.11 1.06 62 63 38 39
DFA US Targeted Value I 35 70 -0.07 -1.16 1.09 1.08 82 74 67 67
DFA International Value I 78 81 0.65 0.28 1.07 1.10 79 79 56 60
American Funds New Perspective R6 28 19 1.97 3.30 0.97 0.93 26 24 19 19
Harding Loevner Global Equity Inst 29 11 1.82 3.94 0.95 0.94 24 23 14 12
Definitions
Return Rank - Fund's category percentile return rank, a value less than 50 (1 is the best and 100 is the worst) implies the fund is beating more than 50% of its peer group.
Excess Return - Fund's excess return over its becnchmark, a value greater than 0 implies the fund's return is higher than its benchmark.
Relative StdDev - Fund's standard deviation relative to its benchmark, a value less than 1 implies the fund's standard deviation is lower than its benchmark.
Alpha Rank - Fund's category percentile Alpha rank, a value less than 50 (1 is the best and 100 is the worst) implies the fund is beating more than 50% of its peer group.
Sharpe Rank - Fund's category percentile Sharpe Ratio rank, a value less than 50 (1 is the best and 100 is the worst) implies the fund is beating more than 50% of its peer group.
City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan 10
Page 17
Quarterly Investment Monitor Data as of 06/30/2012
Investment Policy Review - Passive Management
Excess Excess Tracking Tracking
Fund Beta Beta Expense
Return Return Error Error
Name 3Y 5Y Ratio
3Y 5Y 3Y 5Y
Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Signal 1.25 1.00 1.74 0.82 1.50 0.90 0.11
Vanguard Interm-Term Bond Index Signal -0.03 0.11 1.02 0.34 1.02 0.44 0.11
Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Admiral -0.08 -0.67 0.97 2.96 0.98 4.49 0.10
Definitions
Excess Return - Fund's excess return over its becnchmark, a value greater than 0 implies the fund's return is higher than its benchmark.
Beta - Fund's Beta or sensitivity to movements compared to its benchmark, a value of 1 implies its moving in sync with its benchmark.
Tracking Error - Fund's Tracking Error versus its benchmark, a value of 0 implies the Fund's ups and downs are the same size as its benchmark.
City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan 11
Page 18
Quarterly Investment Monitor Data as of 06/30/2012
Investment Option Return Summary
Asset Fund 3 1 3 5 10 Mstar Expense
YTD Ticker
Class Name Months Year Years Years Years Rating Ratio
Taxable Money Market Wells Fargo Advantage Treas Plus MMkt I 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.76 1.69 PISXX NA 0.20
BofA ML 3-month T-bill total return Index 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.12 0.98 1.87 N/A NA NA
Short-term Bond Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Signal 0.59 1.04 2.44 3.51 4.67 3.99 VBSSX 4.00 0.11
Barclays US Govt/Credit 1-3 Yr TR USD 0.22 0.58 1.12 2.26 3.67 3.43 N/A NA NA
Intermediate-term Bond Vanguard Interm-Term Bond Index Signal 3.31 3.97 11.11 9.94 8.68 6.81 VIBSX 5.00 0.11
Barclays US Govt/Credit 5-10 Yr TR USD 3.22 3.96 11.03 9.97 8.57 6.89 N/A NA NA
Large Value Vanguard Equity-Income Adm (0.79) 7.52 9.37 18.61 1.77 6.43 VEIRX 5.00 0.22
S&P 500 Value (3.58) 8.92 3.00 15.32 (2.68) 4.90 N/A NA NA
Large Growth Vanguard Morgan Growth Adm (6.03) 10.14 0.73 16.38 0.93 6.44 VMRAX 4.00 0.30
Large Growth Vanguard PRIMECAP Inv (3.49) 6.51 (0.89) 13.71 1.90 7.90 VPMCX 4.00 0.45
S&P 500 Growth (2.05) 9.97 7.76 17.45 3.04 5.67 N/A NA NA
Mid-Cap Value Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Admiral (4.33) 6.40 (0.73) 19.60 0.01 NA VMVAX 3.00 0.10
MSCI US Mid Cap 450 Index USD (5.46) 7.23 (2.71) 19.68 0.68 8.24 N/A NA NA
Small Value DFA US Targeted Value I (5.27) 6.08 (5.41) 18.22 (0.89) 8.02 DFFVX 3.00 0.38
S&P 600 Value (4.93) 7.30 1.74 18.29 0.27 6.76 N/A NA NA
Foreign Large Value DFA International Value I (9.56) 0.70 (20.11) 4.76 (7.57) 6.71 DFIVX 3.00 0.45
MSCI EAFE Large Value NR USD (6.79) 1.79 (14.97) 4.11 (7.85) 4.27 N/A NA NA
World Stock American Funds New Perspective R6 (4.06) 9.22 (3.12) 12.77 0.60 7.89 RNPGX 4.00 0.46
World Stock Harding Loevner Global Equity Inst (5.22) 9.85 (2.76) 12.61 1.25 7.40 HLMVX 4.00 0.95
MSCI AC World Index ND USD (5.56) 5.65 (6.49) 10.80 (2.70) 5.73 N/A NA NA
Total Plan POLICE GROSS-RETURN (5.64) 1.05 (4.52) 9.24 1.45 NA N/A NA NA
Total Plan POLICE-NET RETURN (5.70) 0.91 (4.78) 8.94 1.16 NA N/A NA NA
Police Plan Policy Index (2.01) 6.03 2.20 11.72 1.92 5.86 N/A NA NA
City of Dover, Delaware Police Pension Plan 12
Page 19
Asset Liability Study
City of Dover, DE - Police Pension
Asset Liability Study
Date Prepared: July 31, 2012
For Additional Information Contact:
Investment Consultant Investment Consultant
® ®
Jeff Marzinsky, CPC, CIMA Matt Albano, CIMA , QKA
(518)-514-7100 (518)-514-7100
jeff.marzinsky@milliman.com matt.albano@milliman.com
Page 20
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Optimization Input Review
Expected Annual Return Annual Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio
Cash 2.50% 1.20 0.00
ML U.S. Treasuries, Inflation-Linked 2.35% 4.45 -0.03
Barclays Capital Interm U.S.Govt/Credit 2.65% 3.95 0.04
Barclays Capital Long Gov/Credit Index 3.90% 9.50 0.15
Russell 1000 Value Index 8.30% 17.75 0.33
Russell 1000 Growth Index 9.15% 21.25 0.31
Russell Midcap Index 9.10% 20.85 0.32
Russell 2000 Index 9.70% 23.55 0.31
FTSE NAREIT REIT: Equity 8.30% 22.50 0.26
MSCI EAFE (Net) Index 9.10% 21.45 0.31
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index 11.30% 30.40 0.29
2
Page 21
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Input Correlation
Corr Corr
Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr Corr
with Corr Corr with
with with with with with with
Corr Barclays with with MSCI
ML Barclays Russell Russell FTSE MSCI
with Capital Russell Russell EM
US Capital 1000 1000 NAREIT EAFE
Cash Long Midcap 2000 (Emerging
Treas Interm Value Growth REIT: (Net)
Gov/Credit Index Index Markets)
Infl-Linked U.S.Govt/Credit Index Index Equity Index
Index Index
Cash 1.00 0.03 0.24 0.03 0.07 0.06 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05 -0.08 -0.11
ML U.S. Treasuries, Inflation-Linked 0.03 1.00 0.63 0.56 -0.22 -0.25 -0.19 -0.26 0.05 -0.19 -0.15
Barclays Capital Interm U.S.Govt/Credit 0.24 0.63 1.00 0.86 -0.08 -0.18 -0.17 -0.23 0.04 -0.10 -0.25
Barclays Capital Long Gov/Credit Index 0.03 0.56 0.86 1.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.12 -0.17 0.04 -0.07 -0.24
Russell 1000 Value Index 0.07 -0.22 -0.08 -0.06 1.00 0.79 0.93 0.87 0.72 0.80 0.61
Russell 1000 Growth Index 0.06 -0.25 -0.18 -0.13 0.79 1.00 0.89 0.83 0.45 0.79 0.68
Russell Midcap Index -0.01 -0.19 -0.17 -0.12 0.93 0.89 1.00 0.95 0.68 0.83 0.73
Russell 2000 Index -0.03 -0.26 -0.23 -0.17 0.87 0.83 0.95 1.00 0.70 0.76 0.75
FTSE NAREIT REIT: Equity -0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.72 0.45 0.68 0.70 1.00 0.58 0.45
MSCI EAFE (Net) Index -0.08 -0.19 -0.10 -0.07 0.80 0.79 0.83 0.76 0.58 1.00 0.70
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index -0.11 -0.15 -0.25 -0.24 0.61 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.45 0.70 1.00
3
Page 22
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Portfolio Options
Gen
Option Option Option EE &
OPEB
1 2 3 Police
Pension
Cash 5.000 5.000 5.000 2.000 1.000
ML U.S. Treasuries, Inflation-Linked 7.000 7.000 7.000 0.000 0.000
Barclays Capital Interm U.S.Govt/Credit 10.000 10.000 10.000 34.000 31.000
Barclays Capital Long Gov/Credit Index 20.000 17.268 12.287 0.000 0.000
Russell 1000 Value Index 12.117 10.000 11.344 14.000 10.000
Russell 1000 Growth Index 10.000 10.738 14.369 14.000 15.000
Russell Midcap Index 5.000 5.000 5.000 8.000 11.000
Russell 2000 Index 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 7.000
FTSE NAREIT REIT: Equity 5.000 4.994 5.000 0.000 0.000
MSCI EAFE (Net) Index 10.000 10.000 10.000 23.000 25.000
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index 10.883 15.000 15.000 0.000 0.000
Fixed Income 42.00% 39.27% 34.29% 36.00% 32.00%
Equity 58.00% 60.73% 65.71% 64.00% 68.00%
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Gen EE & Police Pension OPEB
Expected Return 6.75% 7.00% 7.25% 6.70% 7.00%
Expected Standard Deviation 11.3045 12.1307 13.0225 12.1951 13.1609
Expected Sharpe Ratio 0.3760 0.3710 0.3648 0.3444 0.3422
Option 1 Option 3 OPEB
Option 2 Gen EE & Police Pension
Expected Return Expected Risk
Expected Sharpe Ratio
8 14 13.16
7.25 13.02 0.50
7.00 7.00 12.13 12.20
6.75 6.70 12 11.30
6 0.38 0.37 0.36
Expected Sharpe Ratio
10 0.34 0.34
Expected Return Expected Risk
8
4 0.25
6
4
2
2
0 0 0.00
4
Page 23
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Efficient Frontier
Mean/Variance Efficient Frontier (Milliman Capital Market Assumptions)
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Return, %
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Risk (StDev Rtn), %
Unconstrained Fixed Income Constrained Option Gen EE & Police Pension OPEB
5
Page 24
Annual Return, %
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Dec 2011
Dec 2012
Dec 2013
Option 1
Dec 2014
Dec 2015
Dec 2016
Dec 2017
Dec 2018
Dec 2019
Dec 2020
Monte-Carlo Downside Log-stable Simulations
Dec 2011
Dec 2012
Monte Carlo Simulation
Dec 2013
Option 2
Dec 2014
Dec 2015
Dec 2016
Dec 2017
Dec 2018
Dec 2019
Dec 2020
Dec 2011
Dec 2012
Dec 2013
Option 3
Dec 2014
Dec 2015
Dec 2016
Dec 2017
Dec 2018
Dec 2019
Dec 2020
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Dec 2011
Dec 2012
Dec 2013
Dec 2014
Dec 2015
Dec 2016
Dec 2017
Monte Carlo Annual Return Simulation
Dec 2018
Dec 2019
Dec 2020
Dec 2011
Dec 2012
Gen EE & Police Pension OPEB
Dec 2013
Dec 2014
Asset Allocation Study
Dec 2015
Dec 2016
Dec 2017
Dec 2018
Dec 2019
Dec 2020
75th to 95th Percentile
50th to 75th Percentile
25th to 50th Percentile
6 5th to 25th Percentile
Page 25
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Liability Duration
7
Page 26
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Liability Duration
8
Page 27
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Liability Duration
9
Page 28
Quarterly Investment Monitor - June 2012
Asset Allocation Study
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared for the internal use of City of Dover, DE - Police Pension and is only to be relied upon by City of Dover, DE -
Police Pension. No portion of this report may be distributed or otherwise furnished to any other party without Milliman's prior written consent.
In the event such consent is given, the report must be provided in its entirety. Milliman does not intend to benefit any third party recipient of
its work product and does not intend to create any legal duty from Milliman to any other party even if Milliman's work product is so distributed.
Information on individual investment managers and plan investment options contained in this report have been obtained from the firms
themselves or a third party vendor. Although Milliman did not perform a detailed audit of the information provided, we reviewed the data for
reasonableness and consistency. The performance data within this report represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results.
All returns include internal expenses, except sales charges, if any. The rates of return shown are for the investment options in which the
retirement program participates, not for the plan specifically. Returns credited to individual accounts will vary due to the timing of
contributions, transfers, and withdrawals.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Milliman provides a copy of its SEC Form ADV to clients without charge upon request.
Unless explicitly stated in your Service Agreement, there should be no reliance on Milliman services to provide analysis or reporting on a daily
basis, the changes to manager rankings, ratings or opinions thereon.
Unless explicitly stated in your Service Agreement, Milliman services are not intended to monitor investment manager compliance with
individual security selection criteria, limits on security selection, and/or prohibitions to the holding of certain securities or security types.
This projection is intended for the sole use of City of Dover, DE - Police Pension. It is a complex, technical analysis and is not for the use or
benefit of any third party for any purpose and may not be provided to third parties without Milliman’s prior written consent. Any third party
recipient of Milliman’s work product who desires professional guidance should not rely upon Milliman’s work product but should engage qualified
professionals for advice appropriate to its own specific needs.
These estimates are subject to the uncertainties of a regular actuarial valuation; the estimates are inexact because they are based on
assumptions that are themselves necessarily inexact, even though we consider them reasonable. Thus, the emerging liabilities and market
returns may vary from those presented to the extent actual experience differs from that projected by the actuarial assumptions.
10